Your Black Friday Post-Mortem Starts December 1 and Ends in January: Nine Numbers to Pull, and When

If you review Black Friday on December 2, you will be reviewing the wrong half of it. Sales are in, but delivery problems, tickets and returns are still on their way.

Why one review is not enough

Returns do not spike during the sale. nShift's data on 2024 shipments showed returns peaking around December 27. AfterShip's BFCM returns report found December had the highest monthly return volume, with a spike roughly 30 days after Cyber Monday.

In 2026, Cyber Monday is November 30. That puts the returns wave in the last week of December and the first two weeks of January. A post-mortem has to run in three waves.

Wave 1: December 1 to 7, what happened at the dock

These numbers are available as soon as the sale ends.

1. Volume against baseline. Compare Black Friday and Cyber Monday order counts to a normal Friday and Monday. This tells you how big the real peak was.
2. Order-to-ship time. Measure the hours from order to carrier scan, not label creation. Look at the median and the slowest 10%.
3. Average label cost. Compare to last year and to your plan. Surcharges move this number more than you expect.

Wave 2: December 20 to January 5, what customers experienced

Delivery outcomes arrive after the carriers settle.

4. On-time delivery rate. Count packages delivered by the date you promised, not by the carrier's service level.
5. Resolutions per 1,000 orders. Track lost, damaged and late orders by cause. This is your real service cost.
6. Where-is-my-order tickets per 100 orders. A high number points to a communication gap even when delivery was fine.

Wave 3: January 15 to 31, what came back

Now you can see the cost of the season.

7. Return rate by order week. Group returns by the week of the original order, not the week they arrived.
8. Share resolved as exchange or credit. AfterShip linked offering several return resolutions, especially exchanges, to more retained revenue. Track the split between refunds, exchanges and store credit.
9. Dock-to-stock time. How many days returned items wait before they are sellable again. Slow receiving turns a returned item into a January markdown.

Turn nine numbers into three decisions

Do not leave the scorecard in a spreadsheet. Use it to answer three questions.

• Fulfillment: Which cutoff, process or partner issue cost the most delay?
• Delivery promise: What date should you promise next year, and for which regions?
• Returns policy: Is the window, fee or credit offer right for gifts?

Who owns which number

Give each number one owner and one deadline. An ops manager owns the first three, a CX lead owns the middle three, and a finance lead owns the last three. A founder reads one page.

Keep the same nine numbers next year so you can compare season to season.

The ShipAid post-purchase platform brings protection, returns, shipping rates and fulfillment into one view of what happens after checkout. Learn more at shipaid.com.