Stolen Package: Reship, Refund, or Resolve? A Decision Matrix by Order Value

The right answer to a stolen package depends on the order, not the policy. A $25 order and a $250 order should not get the same response, and a first-time buyer is not a ten-time customer.

Why this keeps coming up

One 2025 industry estimate found that nearly one in three US households (29.7%) had a package stolen, with retailers absorbing about $7.9 billion in refunds and replacements. You do not need to trust the exact figure to know the volume is real. Every merchant will face this decision many times a year.

The three outcomes

• Reship: send a new item at your cost. Best for customer relationships, worst for margin.
• Refund: return the money. Cheapest in handling, and the customer is gone.
• Resolve through a Shipping Guarantee: the customer files a resolution, and the outcome is handled inside your brand experience. You keep the relationship, and the cost follows the program's rules.

The matrix

Use four inputs: order value, your gross margin, the customer's history, and whether the item is in stock.

Under $40

Reship if you have stock and the margin is above 50%. The reship often costs less than the time spent arguing. Refund if the item is out of stock.

$40 to $150

Reship for repeat customers. For first-time buyers, reship once, and note it on the account. Consider a short verification step, such as a confirmation of the delivery address.

$150 to $500

Verify first. Check the delivery scan, photo confirmation if available, and the address history. If it looks legitimate, reship or refund based on inventory and margin. Offer a choice when you can.

Over $500

Use a documented process. Require a police report or written statement if your policy says so, keep the evidence, and involve the carrier. The cost of a wrong decision is high in both directions.

Signals that change the answer

1. Repeat reports from the same account or address.
2. Delivered-scan location that matches the address.
3. High-resale items such as electronics and sneakers.
4. New accounts with expedited shipping.
5. Customer history: lifetime value earns more benefit of the doubt.

Write it down

A matrix only works if everyone uses the same one. Put it in your support docs, set value thresholds, and let agents approve the first tier without asking. That speeds up every case and makes outcomes consistent.

Take the decision off the clock

Most of the damage in a stolen-package case comes from delay. A customer waiting days for an answer is already looking at a competitor. Give customers a self-service resolution path and let rules handle the simple cases.

Want stolen-package cases resolved in your own branded flow? Learn about ShipAid Shipping Guarantee.