Visa's 1.5% Dispute Line: A Quick Model for How Many Delivery Disputes Put You at Risk

Visa lowered its excessive-dispute threshold from 2.2% to 1.5% on April 1, 2026. At that level, a store doing 2,000 orders a month crosses the line at 30 combined disputes and fraud reports.

The rule in plain terms

Visa's VAMP program looks at fraud reports and disputes as a share of settled transactions. Payment processors summarize the current excessive threshold as 1.5%, with an $8 fee per dispute once a merchant is classified as excessive. Confirm the exact formula and your status with your payment processor, because they implement it differently.

Separately, Visa expanded Compelling Evidence 3.0 on April 18, 2026. It lets merchants counter first-party fraud by showing two earlier undisputed transactions from the same cardholder, with matching details such as device, IP address, shipping address, or account. Those earlier transactions must be between 120 and 365 days older than the disputed one.

The model

Take your monthly settled transactions and multiply by 0.015. That is your ceiling.

• 1,000 orders a month: 15
• 2,000 orders a month: 30
• 5,000 orders a month: 75
• 10,000 orders a month: 150

Now subtract the disputes you already see from fraud and from all other reasons. What remains is your room for delivery disputes.

Why delivery is the piece you can control

Item-not-received and delivered-not-received cases are disputes you can reduce. A customer who cannot get a quick answer from you often calls their bank. A customer who gets a fast resolution does not.

Run this exercise:

1. Count last quarter's delivery-related disputes.
2. Count the tickets that preceded them. How many customers wrote to you first?
3. Measure time to resolution. Anything over 48 hours is a risk.
4. Look for repeat addresses and accounts. These are the profile CE 3.0 is built for.
5. Add the dispute fee. At $8 per dispute, 40 disputes is $320 a month before you count the lost order.

What brings the number down

Give customers a place to resolve a delivery issue before they contact their bank. A self-service resolution flow, clear tracking, and a documented record of every step give you evidence when a dispute does arrive. A Shipping Guarantee at checkout creates a branded path that keeps the conversation with you.

Keep your evidence organized: proof of shipment, tracking history, delivery scan, customer communication, and a record of any resolution offered.

Watch the trend, not just the threshold

Crossing 1.5% is the penalty. Approaching it is the warning. Track the ratio monthly, and set an internal alert at 1.0%, well before the processor contacts you.

Want delivery issues resolved before they become disputes? See how ShipAid Shipping Guarantee keeps resolutions inside your brand.